Monday, January 30, 2012

NC Gubernatorial Race – NC LS Analysis

The League of the South

“Sir…I owe no allegiance to any men or set of men on earth, save only to the State of North Carolina, and, so far as she has parted with her sovereignty, to the United States of America.” Judge William Gaston


The 11th hour declaration of Governor Perdue's intentions to not seek reelection has upended Raleigh and has potentially far reaching consequences in North Carolina politics. For the Democrats an uphill slog has been replaced by the chaotic process of finding a suitable process in 100 days before May 8. For the Republicans, this only heightens their excitement at the prospect of ending their 20 year hiatus from the Governor's mansion.

The Democrat's were rocked by Governor Perdue's decision to take a pass at a rematch with Pat McCrory just 3 weeks before the candidate filing period begins on February 15. The strongest possible alternative, Attorney General Roy Cooper, immediately took a pass on what would've been a true knockdown fight between two heavyweights. As of this writing two candidates have already declared their intentions to run: Lt. Governor Walter Dalton and Rep. Bill Faison.

Other potential candidates include Congressman Heath Shuler, Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines, former Congressman Bob Etheridge, Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx, Congressman Mike McIntyre, state Senator Dan Blue, Senator Kay Hagan, and maybe more. Whether any of these potential candidates hop in depends in large part on whether Erskine Bowles jumps in thanks to his name recognition and ability to self-fund.

For the Republicans all of this chaos means at the least that Pat McCrory will be free to raise money and gain traction while the Democrats wage an expensive and possibly divisive primary battle. It could also mean a free ride in the general election for the Republican Congressional candidates in the 7th and 11th Districts. And it could also give the Republicans on Jones Street the potential to move moderate Democrats in their direction on issues such as Voter ID and overriding Governor Perdue's other vetoes.

The next three months will be exciting as North Carolina shifts rightward. It is time for our members to use this shifting environment to take action on the issues we care about and ensure that members of both parties take us seriously. NC LS Legislative Task Force

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