Thursday, June 16, 2016

After correcting for bias, Clinton's national lead in CBS & NBC polls evaporate

Via Billy

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/moneybox/2015/08/16/donald_trump_on_immigration_build_border_fence_make_mexico_pay_for_it/483208412-real-estate-tycoon-donald-trump-flashes-the-thumbs-up.jpg.CROP.promo-xlarge2.jpg

CBS News is now pushing the pro-Hillary Clinton polls in rapid fashion.  Late on Wednesday, this media outlet released the results of a national poll claiming to show that Clinton holds a 6% advantage over Donald Trump in the direct head-to-head matchup.

Apparently, the poll "was conducted by telephone June 9-13, 2016 among a random sample of 1,280 adults nationwide, including 1,048 registered voters[.] ... The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables."

However, based on the polling details, the final weighted sample of 976 registered voters is made up of just 28% Republicans and 35% Democrats.

In the unweighted sample of registered voters, the relative percentage by party was 29% Republicans and 35% Democrats.

So, during the weighting process, the poll increased the Democrat-Republican spread from 6% to 7%.  This relative weighting should have been headed in the other direction.

                                                        More @ American Thinker

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