On November 25, two days after a failed German government bond auction in which Germany was unable to sell 35% of its offerings of 10-year bonds, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble said that Germany might retreat from its demands that the private banks that hold the troubled sovereign debt from Greece, Italy, and Spain must accept part of the cost of their bailout by writing off some of the debt. The private banks want to avoid any losses either by forcing the Greek, Italian, and Spanish governments to make good on the bonds by imposing extreme austerity on their citizens, or by having the European Central Bank print euros with which to buy the sovereign debt from the private banks. Printing money to make good on debt is contrary to the ECB's charter and especially frightens Germans, because of the Weimar experience with hyperinflation.Obviously, the German government got the message from the orchestrated failed bond auction. As I wrote at the time, there is no reason for Germany, with its relatively low debt to GDP ratio compared to the troubled countries, not to be able to sell its bonds. If Germany's creditworthiness is in doubt, how can Germany be expected to bail out other countries? Evidence that Germany's failed bond auction was orchestrated is provided by troubled Italy's successful bond auction two days later.Strange, isn't it. Italy, the largest EU country that requires a bailout of its debt, can still sell its bonds, but Germany, which requires no bailout and which is expected to bear a disproportionate cost of Italy's, Greece's and Spain's bailout, could not sell its bonds.In my opinion, the failed German bond auction was orchestrated by the US Treasury, by the European Central Bank and EU authorities, and by the private banks that own the troubled sovereign debt.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Goldman Sachs Has Taken Over
Via Matthew
I don't think Italy was able to sell all the bonds it wanted and what it did sell had high yields. One explanation for the German bond sale failure is that they are denominated in Euros. It doesn't matter if a EURO zone nation is credit worthy if the Market has no faith in the EURO currency. If a EURO denominate bond is redeemed at maturity with EUROs that have devalued 50% that's a 50% haircut. That's why we're swapping dollars for EUROs. The European banks need dollars to buy bonds because the ECB is prohibited from directly purchasing government bonds. The national central banks trade dollars for EUROs, loan those dollars to private banks who buy bonds with those dollars then they can sell the bonds to the ECB.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't matter if a EURO zone nation is credit worthy if the Market has no faith in the EURO currency.
ReplyDeleteGood point.