Sunday, April 5, 2020

Forecasting Model Predicts When Each State Will Likely Hit Coronavirus Peak, Gives Possible Total Deaths


 NUTLEY, NJ - FEBRUARY 28: A researcher works in a lab that is developing testing for the COVID-19 coronavirus at Hackensack Meridian Health Center for Discovery and Innovation on February 28, 2020 in Nutley, New Jersey. The facility develops novel therapies for some of the world’s most difficult diseases. At least 53 countries have reported cases of infection.

 United States:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 15, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 2,644 deaths on April 16, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 93,531 deaths.
 North Carolina:
  • Peak hospital resource use: April 26, 2020.
  • Peak deaths per day: 51 deaths on April 27, 2020.
  • Total deaths by August 4, 2020: 1,534 deaths.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) created a forecasting model that projects future coronavirus cases and deaths in the United States overall, as well as in individual states.

NPR reported that IHME “produced projections very similar” to the model that White House officials were using for their projections.

IHME’s modelers said that they did not take into account President Donald Trump’s social distancing guidelines when they built their model, but they did take into account which each individual state did.

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2 comments:

  1. Average JoeApril 5, 2020 at 10:59 PM

    "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

    Y"all have a nice day.

    ReplyDelete

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