Thursday, April 9, 2015

"What if Iran already has a bomb, or bombs?" Another Possibility

Via Jonathan

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One of the oldest tricks in negotiating is to make the other side think that you regard some point as terribly important when in fact it is not, fight over it tooth and nail, give ground grudgingly, and by so doing win major concessions on points that are actually far more important. It appears that the Iranian negotiations have yielded an agreement that, if implemented and fully complied with by the Iranians, will essentially eviscerate their nuclear program.

Iran has cut its centrifuges by two-thirds, and the centrifuges it will use are legacy, several generations behind state of the art. It has agreed not to enrich uranium beyond 3.67 percent, far below the 90 percent necessary for a bomb. A heavy water reactor at Arak will be reconfigured so that it cannot produce plutonium (the Iranians have never had the capability to reprocess such plutonium into bomb cores). The once-secret Fordow uranium enrichment site will be converted into a research center. International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors will have virtually full-time, soup-to-nuts access, from uranium mining to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and will monitor imports into the country of materials and components that could have potential nuclear applications.

3 comments:

  1. 1. They don't need Plutonium to make bombs. only to make really good bombs. A crappy nuke bomb is still a pretty big deal.

    2. The CIA has estimated that Iran is 2 years away from having the bomb. They have been estimating this for the past 15 years. They also said this same estimate about France, Pakistan, India, and China on the days when each of them detonated their first Nukes. They are either always wrong abouot their estimates, or they are always lying about their estimates. Either way, why would any American listen to them?

    3. The same negotiation team was in North Korea under the Clinton administration. NK has detonated a (bad) nuke.

    4. In reality, Iran has been only 8 hours away from getting a nuke. There is no rule that says you have to invent one yourself. 8 hours is how long it will take to fly to Pakistan with a bag of money and fly back with a live warhead. Maybe 10 hours to get one from North Korea. 5 hours to get one from the Russian mob. Bigger bag of money but they will deliver it.

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  2. "Iran would use the bomb under only extreme circumstances, and the Russians or Chinese would undoubtedly extract assurances that an Iranian bomb, if detonated, would blow up in London, Washington, or New York, not Moscow or Beijing"

    Only under extreme circumstances huh? You sir have entered the Hall of Fame of Douche Canoes. Does this moron not know how many American deaths Iran is responsible for directly and indirectly? Circular Firing Squad Logic ought to be his blog name! Stick to the financial stuff Gore, you're in over your head.

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