Alabama
Republican Roy Moore has reopened a 49–44 lead over Democrat Doug Jones
in the race for U.S. Senate. In Change Research’s third poll since the
sexual misconduct allegations against Moore first surfaced on November
9, we found
that he has completely erased the 3-point lead Jones had opened up in
mid-November. Moore’s lead is now just as large as it was just after the
story broke.
What
has changed? The largest difference is turnout: many Republicans who
ten days ago said they might not vote, now say they plan to show up on
Election Day and vote for Moore. In mid-November, 82% of those who voted
for Donald Trump in 2016 said they would “definitely” vote on December
12; that number has climbed to 88%. Additionally, Moore has made some
gains with his base: his 91–5 lead with them ten days ago has grown to a
93–4 edge. In mid-November, 10% of voters had planned to cast a
write-in vote; that number has dropped to 7%.
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