Sell Off

     

The brutal sell-off in the stock and the bond market Thursday was ignited by fears that the economy could overheat later this year and generate a high level of inflation that would force the Fed to hike rates earlier than expected. This is the scenario that economists like Larry Summer and Olivier Blanchard were warning about a few weeks ago. It's become more likely because the data shows that the economy is already stronger than expected. Thursday's sell-off, for example, was preceded by jobless claims numbers showing a sharp downturn in layoffs.

The message of the sell-off is pretty clear: we do not need $1.9 trillion of stimulus spending. The bill was written under assumptions about the economy that have turned out to be too pessimistic. What looked responsible back in January now looks irresponsible. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow says the data show us growing at a 9.6 percent rate. You don't pour another $1.9 trillion onto that kind of growth.

However painful it is to watch broad market downturns, there is some upside. The breadth of the sell-off and the huge spike in bond yields makes the message about the stimulus bill hard to miss. The market is providing a signal to Washington: tone down the stimulus.

That's not to say that the economy does not need any aid. Tens of millions of Americans are still out of work, and many businesses are operating with reduced capacity. Many businesses have folded, and new business creation has been stymied. By Olivier Blanchard's estimate, the output gap—the difference between how much our economy could produce and how much it will produce this year without stimulus—is likely around $900 billion. A bill around that size would not overheat the economy. But can the Democratic leadership walk back their spending plans without enraging the far left?

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network