In short, Democrats saw the trend in their direction in only one state (DE) and even where they had a net gain (CO), it had fallen from previous months. While one or two states might be exceptions or quixotic, the same cannot be said for a sample of twelve battleground states. This represents a net gain by Republicans across these states of over 290,000 votes. As I have said in previous columns, these numbers suggest if the election were held today, Trump would win all the electoral votes he carried in 2016 and add New Hampshire, and probably Maine and New Mexico. But other states are rapidly coming in to play.
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An ongoing analysis of voter registration trends since November 2016—the election of Donald Trump—continues to show significant trends toward Republicans almost across the board. A couple of notes on the data are necessary:
- In many cases—almost all except Arizona and Delaware—the total number of registered Democrats and Republicans both has fallen. This is normal. Secretaries of State purge voter rolls of those who have moved, died, or asked to be removed from the rolls. The baseline month is November 2016, but some states have not updated up to September. I used the most recent date in these cases. Pennsylvania’s data has still not been updated from May, but I’ll include it anyway.
- New Jersey was the only state to show one party declining (the Democrats) and the other gaining (the Republicans, though only by 287 voters).
- Unfortunately MI, WI, OH, MN, VA, GA, and TX do not register voters by party, so tracking these states is not possible. Once some of them—such as OH—have primaries, a comparison to previous primary turnout would be beneficial.
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