African-Americans
are failing to vote at the robust levels they did four years ago in
several states that could help decide the presidential election,
creating a vexing problem for
Hillary Clinton as she clings to a deteriorating lead over Donald J. Trump with Election Day just a week away.
As
tens of millions of Americans cast ballots in what will be the
largest-ever mobilization of early voters in a presidential election,
the numbers have started to point toward a slump that many Democrats
feared might materialize without the nation’s first black president on
the ticket.
The
reasons for the decline appear to be both political and logistical,
with lower voter enthusiasm and newly enacted impediments to voting at
play. In North Carolina, where a federal appeals court
accused Republicans of an “almost surgical” assault on black turnout and Republican-run election boards curtailed early-voting sites, black turnout is
down 16 percent. White turnout, however, is up 15 percent.
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Via Billy
Commenting on the survey, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said,
“It’s our belief that there is a significant “Brexit” type undercurrent
of support for Trump that many polls are not capturing. We have been
asking a second ballot test question to measure who survey takers
believe most their neighbors will vote for. In our Ohio, Florida, and
this North Carolina survey we find a consistent pattern of Clinton
support dropping 5-6% while Trump support increases 4.5-5.5% for this
question.