PAKISTAN Land of Muslim Intrigue

Mike Scruggs

The recent U.S. killing of Osama bin Laden at his hideout in the Pakistani Army garrison town of Abbottabad (population 148,000), only 31 miles from the capital city of Islamabad, has raised serious questions about Pakistan’s status as a trusted American ally. It has also raised serious questions with the people of Pakistan about American violations of Pakistani sovereignty.

Pakistan’s population of over 187 million is 95 percent Muslim, making it the sixth largest country in the world by population and the second largest Muslim nation in the world. Because its Muslim population is growing faster than the Muslim population of Indonesia, Pakistan will soon be the largest Muslim nation in the world. Its modernized Army, Navy, and Air Force have a total of 620,000 personnel on active duty. This makes Pakistan’s armed forces the seventh largest in the world. It is one of only nine nations in the world, and the only Muslim nation, to possess nuclear weapons. Its Air Force is the sixth largest in the world with 371 combat aircraft. Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at between 24 and 48 weapons. Its Army has two armored and 12 infantry divisions well equipped with the latest tanks, artillery, attack and transport helicopters, and anti-aircraft weapons. Its small but modernized Navy has 11 surface ships, 40 aircraft, and 5 submarines.

As I pointed out in my articles on Afghanistan several months ago, Pakistan was an important ally to the United States during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War. Since 2001, Pakistan has been an important, but sometimes dubious, ally in the U.S. engagement against the Afghan Taliban. Pakistani assistance, especially by Pakistani Military Intelligence (ISI) has often been indispensable. Yet they have often worked against us to pursue their own internal domestic political objectives and foreign policy alternatives.

Many in Congress, the media, and the American public are now bristling with anger over suspicions that our supposedly trusted ally, flush with billions of U.S. dollars in annual aid, was complicit in hiding our number one villain in a walled hideout only minutes from the Pakistani Military Academy and thousands of Pakistani troops. Many in Pakistan are resentful that the U.S. would pull off such a raid without Pakistani knowledge and approval. Some are humiliated that the U.S. found and killed bin Laden right under the noses of Pakistani Military Intelligence and Army units.

However, as a former Air Force intelligence officer and student of foreign intrigue, I strongly suspect that the American media, the American public, and even most members of Congress may never know the full story of Pakistani and American intrigue in the killing of Osama bin Laden. The full truth will be at least a long time in coming. Pakistan is a nation of divided allegiances. Most top-ranking Pakistani military officers, especially in the ISI, demonstrably tend toward the secularist version of Islam modeled most conspicuously by the Turkish military. These are most likely to cooperate with Western foreign policy and military objectives. In the past, military officers have been well-respected by the Pakistani people, and many, such as General Zia ul-Haq, President of Pakistan from 1978 to 1988, have served in high political offices. More recent Pakistani political leaders, however, have had to govern in an atmosphere where a more militant brand of Islam is increasing in importance. .

In neighboring Afghanistan, 40 to 50 percent of the population belongs to the Pashtun (or Pathan) group of tribes. They have been the backbone of Taliban radicalism. The largest tribal group in Pakistan is the Punjabi with 45 percent of the population, but the Pashtun overlap the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan and make up more than 15 percent of Pakistan’s population. There are also at least one million Afghan refugees in Pakistan, many of whom are troublesome Pashtun-Taliban. Other major tribal groups are the Sindhi (14 percent), the Sariaki (8 percent), the Muhajirs (8 percent) and the Balochi (4 percent).

The Pashtun dominate the Northwest Tribal Territory that borders Afghanistan and have close relations with the Pashtun in Afghanistan. Most Taliban religious leaders in Afghanistan received their schooling in Pakistan.

In addition to the tribal influences on Pakistan, the Muslim population is divided. Pakistan is 75 percent Sunni Muslim and 20 percent Shia Muslim. Besides its considerable border with Afghanistan, Pakistan has a border with often-hostile Shiite Iran. It also has borders with Tajikistan and China, and a long border with nuclear-armed archrival India, including the disputed Kashmir region. In addition, Pakistan has an important trading and shipping border on the Arabian Sea.

It is important for Americans to remember that Pakistan is an overwhelmingly Muslim country where any issue related to Islam, especially in light of its resurgent fundamentalist and militant forms, is fraught with extreme political risk for Pakistani leaders. In particular, Pakistani leaders have often had to pander to the fundamentalist militancy of its large Pashtun minority.

The magnitude of the problem over the bin Laden raid was indicated by an eleven hour briefing by the ISI to the Pakistani Parliament. Many are concerned that the political crisis could loosen the Pakistani military’s ability to govern the country, opening the doors to Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda influences leading to the dominance of more militant forms of political Islam. In these briefings, the Pakistani ISI took an increasingly tough tone against the United States. In addition, Pakistan is making some overtures for alliances with China.

Pakistan can be a valuable ally or a formidable enemy both to the U.S. and India.