North Carolina League of the South Raleigh Legislative Update

Congressional Race Analysis

The historic Long Session of 2011 had the Republicans drawing the legislative lines for the first time in North Carolina’s history. The GOP decided to go for broke in their line drawing efforts to ensure control of the General Assembly, and a majority of the state’s congressional delegation for the next 10 years. A current 7-6 Democrat majority is fixing to flip to a 9-4 or potentially a 10-3 Republican advantage, and will likely remain unchanged absent a major demographic shift (I.E. amnesty) or a massive partisan realignment. Below is my personal analysis of each race, with the districts most likely to shift parties listed in descending order.

1. 13^th District - This district has undergone profound changes, as it was originally drawn by Brad Miller for Brad Miller. This district goes from a 58% Obama district to a 54% McCain district. The change is so profound that Brad Miller is leaving open the option to running in the 4^th District in a potential primary with David Price.

So far there are 4 Republicans who have announced their intentions to run for this seat: former Raleigh mayor (and nephew of Jesse Helms) Paul Coble, former federal prosecutor George Holding, 2010 nominee Bill Randall, and 2006 nominee Vernon Robinson. In terms of money and name recognition the advantage goes to Holding and Coble. Holding, whose family owns First Citizens Bank, has enormous financial potential, and has announced that Carter Wrenn will be running his campaign. Paul Coble has announced his intention to raise $1.5 million for the primary. This has the potential to be the most expensive Republican congressional primary in the South, and interesting to watch.

2. 11^th District - Heath Shuler’s Blue Dog status is fixing to go the way of Old Yeller in what is now the most Republican district in the state. Where McCain had only won by 52% in the original district, the newly approved lines would have seen McCain take 58% of the vote thanks to the city of Asheville being removed from the district. Considering that Shuler had to spend $2 million to keep his seat in 2010, he is in for the fight of his political life in 2012.

The Republican tilt of the new district has not been lost upon the aspiring politicos of the 11^th. 2010 runner up Dr. Dan Eichenbaum is carrying the Tea Party standard, Henderson County DA Jeff Hunt is in, and 2008 runner up Spence Campbell has announced he is in the race. Sources indicate that as many as 5 more candidates are considering a run in this race, making for a crowded primary field. As I’ve stated before, this district has the greatest potential for producing a constitutional conservative nominee if enough voters rally around the one with the best chance to win. Until then it will be a true western North Carolina crapshoot.

3. 8^th District - With the Mecklenburg and Cumberland county precincts removed from the District, this 52% Obama district becomes a 57% McCain district. Larry Kissell will be hard pressed in what is one of the most Republican areas of the state under the new lines.

The primary field in this district is very wide open, as no big names have announced. So far State Representatives Jerry Dockham and Justin Burr have flirted with taking on Kissell. Scott Keadle of the Iredell County Board of Commissioners is also considering a run. This district is also open to a constitutional conservative candidate as it is very blue collar and has seen less of the major demographic changes that other North Carolina districts have seen.

4. District 7 - The new 7^th District follows I-40 from Johnston County to the coast, and will be a tough race in both the primary and the general. Despite being moved into the 8^th District, Congressman McIntyre is going to run for reelection in the 7^th. He stands a better shot than some of his Democratic colleagues given his long tenure and early financial advantage. Despite this being a 57% McCain district, the Republicans will have to work hard to take down the Blue Dog incumbent.

The main reason for the tough nature of this race will be a tough primary between 2010 nominee Ilario Pantano and state Senator Dave Rouzer. Pantano has a dedicated grassroots following, but Rouzer has the support of the State Establishment GOP. Look for this fight to be a rehash of the charges against Pantano in 2010, and a battle between the Tea Party versus the Establishment.

Conclusion The rest of the districts are all safe locks for their incumbent members. The only potential hiccups for the GOP down the road are the 9^th and 10^th Districts. When Sue Myrick decides to retire her Charlotte based district will be a battleground for whomever decides to take it on. The 10^th has the city of Asheville drawn into it so Patrick McHenry might decide to look for greener pastures in 2014 if Kay Hagan looks vulnerable. I hope that if anyone else has any insights or knows any candidates I have overlooked I welcome your comments.
--Carlton Huffman, NC LS Political Initiatives Chair