Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Crowds to stay away from: Gangs

VERBATIM

Gangs are as easy to understand, they're neolithic tribalism, as are baseball leagues and high school cliques, except gangs take reputation, respect, revenge, power, protection and money to criminal extremes. Add violence without limit, recruitment among the young, and you have today's street gangs. And eighty percent of all crime. In the '60s and '70s drug money brought a new ferocity to turf battles and sharpened the ethnic war between the black Bloods, Crips, Black Disciples and Gangster Disciples &c., and the Hispanic Latin Kings, 18th Street Gang, MS13 Mara Salvatrucha, Mexican Mafia, Norteños, Sureños, and Vice Lords. 

Urban gangs are very large. Los Angeles's 18th Street Gang and its cliques are said to be 20,000 strong, sixty percent of which are illegal aliens. About a third of all violent gangs are black, about half Hispanic, the rest are white and Asian. Only in small city gangs will the membership be anything like diverse. The best known white gang is the Aryan Brotherhood, a comparatively small, prison-based, white supremacist outfit that dates back to San Quentin in the mid-1960s. The Brotherhood is so insanely murderous it's said the Italian Mafia sometimes turns to them for protection. They use Nazi symbols and regalia although of late they've been less about demographics than ordinary crime. 

Gangs have historically been tolerated because they were territorial and thus avoidable, but the twentieth century added a new feature to gang life: mobility. If we're honest, nobody much cares about body counts in gang battles, only when they intrude into the larger society does the alarm go out. Gang mobility is an unstated reason mass transit extensions are contested. The densely reasoned, and often valid, official arguments are proxies in large part. America has been self-segregating on all sides for several decades now but in the end avoiding gangs will be impossible. In populated areas they'll come to you one way or another.

It's with the Hispanic gangs we find real mobility and staying power. In addition to being a parallel government in large parts of Mexico, or even the actual government, they're said to be the real authority in some US border state counties. The upper reaches of Hispanic gangs exhibit ambition, purpose and effective long range planning. For instance, they identify and support young prospects for education in business administration and law, and send others for officer training and combat experience in the US armed forces. When we hear from the Pentagon about their "gang member" problem, this is what it's really about art-link-symbol-tiny-grey-arrow-only-rev01.gif

Black gangs will exhibit audacity, unpredictability and recklessness. The survivalist can expect swarm attacks rather than studied tactics, and more exhibitionism than method all around, but beware their adaptability long term. Expect scorched earth exploitation, pointless destruction of assets not immediately or obviously valuable and personalized violence. As it is with black gangs today, the younger members will be the most sadistically homicidal, to gain credibility, or at the behest of the leadership, or just because they can. Take black female gangs as seriously as black male gangs do, they're no mere curiosity. 

Hispanic gangs will be no less brutal but more results oriented. Unlike black gangs, terror will be used as a tactic, they'll intend to hold and control territory they take. When Hispanic and black gangs meet, Kosovo-style ethnic cleansing is likely. The outcome seems predetermined but, as in all things, we have to be willing to be surprised. What matters is which one dominates in your area at any given time. 

At the outset white and Asian gangs will be a factor in scattered pockets but expect their numbers to grow as the emergency deepens. Some sort of cooperation is likely with these two, there's an underlying affinity that appears genuine. How effective they'll be is an imponderable, the data base is small. At the skinny ends of the present "white neolithic tribalism" bell curve we have civic-minded outfits like Neighborhood Watches to modern day berserkers like the Aryan Brotherhood without much in between beyond some biker outfits.

Over time a somewhat stable territorial arrangement will shake itself out. There will be skirmishes where fiefdoms overlap, predictably enough, but as the necessities of survival assert themselves ever more insistently, conflict would gradually center on controlling intrinsically valuable resources such as water, food producing land and basic manufacturing. 

What's given here is a straight line extrapolation of present gangs. In an extended catastrophe it's best to assume a learning curve. The surviving gangs of the first ninety days, say, would be a different threat from those at the outset. Yes, the survivalist in a remote location is more likely to be beset by refugees and raiders than a gang, but gangs have their splinter groups and outcasts and freelancers too. It would be foolish to dismiss the possibility.

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