Tuesday, November 8, 2016

My Prediction of Election 2016 11/7/2016. (Final) TRUMP 315 | Hillary 223

Via Billy

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  1. Pollsters are wrong on the percentage of white voters relative to other voting groups.
  2. Pollsters are ignoring the increased Republican turnout this year.
  3. Pollsters are underestimating the numbers of Democrats voting for Trump – the “Trumpocrats.”
Statespoll.com has gone state-by-state and adjusted the polls for these factors. Each day, they publish realistic numbers for key states.

Here are the latest results for key states (click on the adjusted numbers to see the analysis for each state):

North Carolina: Trump +9.1%
Remington, 11/1-11/2, 2596 Likely Voters
TRUMP 48% | Hillar 45% | Johnson 3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 50.9% | Hillary 41.8% | Johnson 3.3%

Florida: Trump +6.7%
YouGov 11/2-11/4, 1188 Registered Voters
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 45% | Johnson 4% | Stein 2%
Adjusted: TRUMP 48.1% | Hillary 41.4% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 2.8%

Colorado: Trump +5.9%
Gravis, 11/1-11/2, 1125 RV
Hillary 40% | TRUMP 40% | Johnson 7% | Stein 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 42.9% | Hillary 37%

Pennsylvania: Trump +3.3%
Remington 11/1-11/2, 2683 Likely Voters
Hillary 46% | TRUMP 45% | Johnson 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 43.6% | Johnson 4.4%
 Note from Statespoll.com: Remington didn’t include stein, with Stein perhaps hillary’s numbers could be minus 1~2%.

New Hampshire: Trump +2.9%
Emerson. 11/4-11/5. 1000 Likely Voters
Hillary 45.4% | TRUMP 43.8% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 3.3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.3% | Hillary 43.4%

Nevada: Trump +.45%
Emerson 11/4-11/5, 600 Likely Voters
Hillary 46.8% | TRUMP 45.8% | Johnson 3.9% | Stein 1.1%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 46.05%

2 comments:

  1. I sincerely hope this prediction plays out. I do think that the % of white voters that are going to turn out is going to surprise all across the country. People who haven't bothered to vote in years are going to come out and they're not coming out to vote for the wicked witch of Chappaqua.

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    Replies
    1. I'll be happy with a win,no matter how close.

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