Have no idea if valid or not.
Via ivakin_alexey
(extracts of correspondence between him and his assistant in Ukraine)
From: vinmonp@gmail.ru
Sent: Sunday, February 23, 2014 4:56 PM
To: kmitre@usaid.gov
Subject: the revolution in Ukraine
Mickie,
My congratulations to you with victory!
I’m again convinced of your professionalism. May be you will tell me how pressed Yanukovich?
Nobody knows anything here.
Yuri
From: kmitre@usaid.gov
Sent: Sunday, February 23, 2014 11:45 AM
To: vinmonp@gmail.ru
Subject: re: the revolution in Ukraine
Yuri,
Politically, on 21 February 2014 President Yanukovich became a corpse. To induce him to sign an
agreement with the opposition, he had been given assurances of keeping his presidency - naturally,
with somewhat curtailed powers - and a parliament at least partly under his control. Given his
psychological state, it was important to dangle before him the carrot of keeping at least something
instead of losing everything.
The threat of "inevitable responsibility for any new victims" likewise played a role. The Netherlands
with its uncommonly opportune call for taking Yanukovich to court in the Hague also came in handy.
In the end Yanukovich obediently signed the agreement sponsored by EU powers.
Having signed the document, Yanukovich rendered pointless the three-month heroic efforts of lawenforcers to contain the "Euro- Maidan," and the losses these defenders of the rule of law sustained.
Apart from all else, this made his weakness as president apparent. As a result, he lost overnight
whatever support among his political environment he might have had.
What came next followed a tried and tested pattern: on the following day after signing the agreement
the opposition dominated by radicals forgot all about the pledges it had made and demanded
Yanukovich's instant resignation. The now docile parliament, the Rada, acceded to this demand.
What else could it do, with armed "national revolutionists," as they call themselves, strutting around
the parliament building from which the official security men had fled? Anyway, Yanukovich lost his
nerve, as well as any support from any quarter - even from his Party of the Regions.
Among other decisions of the Rada, or its rump, was a reversal to the 2004 Constitution which makes
Ukraine a parliamentary-presidential republic, not presidential-parliamentary as before. According to this version of the Constitution, the Rada must form a ruling coalition which will appoint the prime
minister, who in turn must appoint members of his cabinet.
Well, no coalition in parliament has so far been formed - but the cabinet has been appointed. By
whom? Why, by the Maidan, of course, with important posts in the cabinet handed to Euro-activists
without any education or experience in business, legislation, or administration.
The new premier is Mr. Yatsenyuk - just as predicted (or dictated?) by Ms. Nuland of the "F*** the
EU!" fame. He has already promised two things: (a) unpopular measures (which, translated, means
"Tighten your belts, dear Ukrainians") and (b) signing the EU association agreement "within the
week, if need be."
This last point is quite feasible, as opponents of EU association are demoralized; they have no will
power to stand up to proposals from the "saviors of the nation."
A credit of trust is something that might help the future president of Ukraine - Ms. Timoshenko is a
likely candidate - push into the background the Right Sector and other ultra-nationalists who have
served their purpose. Anyway, Ms. Timoshenko has already requested for the list of Right Sector’s
members and the data about Bandera’s followers violations from all the archives including german
ones.
The losses of Right Sector activists in terms of prestige may be made up for with suitable
remuneration and a chance of settling in any country of their choice.
But this will, or may, come later, right before the presidential election, to pacify Ukraine's eastern
and southern regions, to persuade them that the presidential candidate is precisely the person to
protect them against the ultra-nationalists. For the present, however, the radicals are still needed - as a
weapon for suppressing these regions' faith in their own ability to resist.
Taking Ms. Timoshenko as the most likely presidential candidate, it is vital for her to prevent the
eastern regions from producing a regional political leader. Therefore she, or any other presidential
candidate, will have to do something about Kharkov Region governor Mikhail Dobkin. The region's
citizens will have to be prevented from organizing; the idea of federalization and financial
independence of the eastern regions must be compromised, if Dobkin or any other pro-Eastern leader
is to be defeated. We should try to engage some objective independent regional organizations like the
OSCE in settling these issues.
Russia is a serious constraint on any plans for conquering the Southeast. It has every moral right to
protect ethnic Russians pleading for help, and the experience of operations in South Ossetia in 2008.
Additionally, it has gained extra self-confidence after the recent vastly successful Olympics.
Inability to construct a normal relationship with Russia, which is due, among other things, to the new
Ukrainian powers' desire to reshape the country's east and south in the likeness of Western Ukraine,
will become a serious acid test for those new powers, and an added financial burden for the West.
Incidentally, Europe will have to prepare itself for a more substantial contribution to Ukraine's
finances before long, in view of Russia's expected freeze of its investment in that country's economy.
Russia simply cannot continue to finance a regime that is basically hostile to it - and to the huge
swathes of what is now Ukraine's territory populated predominantly by ethnic Russians and Russian
speakers.
K.Mickie Mitre
Foreign Service Officer
USAID
From: vinmonp@gmail.ru
Sent: Sunday, February 23, 2014 7:03 PM
To: kmitre@usaid.gov
Subject: the revolution in Ukraine
Mickie,
I’ll try to help you with eastern part of Ukraine. At the end of this week or may be at the beginning of
the next week we may be will hold “maidans” in Kharkov and Donetsk. As for Crimea there are
some troubles.
It’s better to send journalists. A bit later I will write you when and where to send them.
Yuri.
