Verbatim Post
In the aftermath of the NATO attack on Pakistan’s check post in Mohmand Agency on November 26th, the country protested strongly claiming it was ‘unprovoked’ and ‘deliberate’. About 24 Pakistani troops had died in the attack. Subsequently, Pakistan blocked NATO’s Afghan supply line, gave a 15 day notice to the Americans for vacating the Shamsi airbase, and boycotted the Bonn conference.
Although US and NATO passed condolences and sincere regrets, they did not apologize. Meanwhile, Pakistan refused today to take part in the joint NATO investigation of the incident. Now a more serious escalation is taking shape that cannot be simply discounted as rhetoric.
Analysis
Pakistan has declared it will retaliate if NATO forces attack its territory again. General Kayani after a meeting with his top commanders commented that NATO would now be viewed as a threat. Former Federal Administered Tribal Areas secretary Brig (retd) Mehmood Shah said,
“Until now the focus of security forces at the Afghan border was to take action against militants and stop cross border infiltration but now they will also be keeping an eye on future NATO strikes.”
Defense analyst Lt General (Retd) Abdul Qayum added that according to the decision, Pakistani soldiers would not have to seek approval from their commanders to retaliate against NATO airstrikes. Reports also suggest Pakistan is considering deploying more troops along its borders with both Afghanistan and India and that it has already equipped the troops with the appropriate weaponry.
Meanwhile, according to a British newspaper, NATO has decided to increase its operations against insurgent groups in Pakistan. The military organization is considering escalating aerial attacks and cross border ground raids. ISAF commander, General John Allen, said the need to confront the sanctuaries in Pakistan was "one of the reasons we are shifting our operations to the east".
NATO is hoping to reduce extremism from the tribal belts so that Afghan security personnel will be able to contain the threat when power is handed over in 2014. US and Afghanistan are also likely to sign a strategic deal at the Bonn Conference that allows presence of US troops there up to 2024.
It is unclear how NATO will seek to proceed following last week’s air strikes, which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and raised tensions between Pakistan and NATO. However, PoliTact sees a war of nerves and a much more serious escalation in the making.
PoliTact would continue to monitor this delicate situation closely.
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