North Carolina League of the South Legislative Update

 

The current session of the General Assembly has yet to wrap up, and many big ticket items such as the budget have yet to be worked out.  But with just a few weeks remaining before adjournment there is plenty of material to conduct a proper analysis of what the past 6 months have meant for North Carolina.  In short the Republican wave that swept North Carolina has failed to produce a fundamental change in the way business will be conducted for the foreseeable future.  It didn’t have to be this way.  With control of the Governor’s Mansion, supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, and control of the state’s judiciary system the Republicans had all the keys to the kingdom.  But by even their own expectations they have fallen short.  Four fundamental facts explain this shortfall.

1.     Raleigh Ain’t Charlotte:  Pat McCrory swept into office with big numbers and high hopes from Republicans desperate to break a 20 year drought in the Governor’s Mansion.  But his adjustment from City Hall has been a work in progress from Day 1.  The main difference is that in Charlotte McCrory had to govern by consensus in a Democrat-leaning town.  The Democrat-controlled City Council was of much the same mindset as “Mayor Pat” in terms of quality of life issues and big dollar projects.  Life in Raleigh is much different.

2.      

Part of the great success of the Republican wave in 2010 meant that Governor Pat faced a Republican legislature that had  had 2 years to get used to its new power.  The folks down Jones Street were already used to conducting business while ignoring the prerogatives of Governor Perdue, and had their agenda and expectations ready to go on Day 1.  Governor Pat has yet to master the levers of power in dealing with the General Assembly and has stuck with reforming the executive departments under his direct control.  Time will tell whether or not he can gain solid footing heading into the fall and next year’s Short Session but his first 6 months have been quite the learning experience.

2.   Dueling Houses:  The first two years of Republican control of Jones Street saw only slight hints of daylight between the House and the Senate.  Facing down Governor Perdue meant that they had to coordinate strategy in facing a common intransigent foe.  The Republican sweep in 2012 freed the majorities to pursue their own agendas, often stepping on each other’s toes in the process.  Dueling budgets along with dueling tax reform plans have led to frayed tempers between the House and Senate leaderships, with Governor McCrory frequently siding with the House.

The Senate under Phil Berger has tended to be the more ambitious and unabashed conservative of the two bodies.  With nose-breaker Tom Apodaca at the head of the Rules Committee the attitude of the Republican Senate has been take no prisoners.  The House on the other hand is taking a more measured approach in the hopes of not moving too far beyond public opinion.  The fact that Speaker Thom Tillis has already announced his candidacy for the US Senate and that Berger is also considering a run cannot help the tensions between the two chambers.

3.   Spirited Backlash:  Barack Obama’s strong performance in North Carolina belies the fact that the state Democratic Party organization has been effectively kneecapped.  The loss of the General Assembly in 2010 followed by the loss of the Governor’s Mansion in 2012 has effectively robbed the Democrats of the special interest money that fueled their longtime dominance in Raleigh.  Coupled with the redistricting process that has all but assured Republican control of the General Assembly till 2020 the Democrats are still scrambling for a way back to relevance.

Nature abhors a vacuum and this has allowed Rev. William Barber and the NAACP to effectively hijack the leadership of the opposition movement to the Republican agenda in Raleigh.  These elements represent the radical fringe of the liberal movement, but with the Democrats neutered for the moment they are gaining power.  While the “Moral Monday” outbursts are not likely to stymie the Republican’s agenda for the remainder of the session, they are likely to make Governor McCrory and Speaker Tillis more prone to pull their punches as the 2014 elections approach.  The danger of this backlash can be summed up thusly:  while the protestors represent the worst of the liberal/progressive movement, they are likely to be viewed sympathetically by a large enough section of the public should the GOP start to lose the favor of its base.

4.  Business as Usual:  Lastly the Republican’s in Raleigh are reverting to the method of exercising power that guided North Carolina under the Black/Basnight regime.  This consists of rewarding the key elements of the base (religious conservatives, 2^nd Amendment advocates, business supporters) while using power to ensure that special interest money keeps rolling in to finance the perpetuation of Republican control in Raleigh.  While state government has undergone a shift in the right direction, it will only march so far because to completely rock the boat risks the access to campaign cash needed to preserve the majority.  To put it plainly:  While the Republicans are willing to take the heat for measures that please the base they are unwilling to put issues like nullification on the table for fear that the center will not hold on top of the current backlash.

While North Carolina policy will likely continue a shift to the right, the Republicans have likely missed the best opportunity to enact true 10^th Amendment solutions to the problems faced by the Old North State.  Their hope is that the economy will generate enough job growth to signal their policies are working while maintaining the loyalty of the groups that got them in power.  November 2014 is a long ways off, but minus a dramatic shift in the GOP leadership in the state I believe that the past 6 months is about as good as it gets in Raleigh.