Analyzing data from communities with concentrations of police, military and prison guards, the study’s authors were able to plot the dramatic rise in support for the Front National and its president over the past three election cycles and to measure voting intent for the 2017 presidential election.
French security forces have been on the front line of the country’s state of emergency since the Paris terror attacks of November 2015 and under pressure to maintain order in an explosive period which has witnessed seemingly endless and violent protest movements, the spread of Islamic extremism and a growing sense of lawlessness which the French refer to in daily parlance as ‘’ l’insécurité’’.
Nanterre, home to a barracks of the gendarmerie’s republican guard, provides a snapshot of the Front National’s progression. Data from a polling station in the Parisian suburb show Le Pen scoring 37.5% in the 2012 presidential election, with her party, the Front National, increasing to 49.3% by 2014’s European elections. In 2015’s regional elections, 51.8% of votes at the same polling station – which serves members of the guard and their families – were cast for the party. The republican guard protects state buildings, supplies guards of honor for military ceremonies and supports law enforcement in Paris.
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