Thursday, May 5, 2016

Political science professor: Odds of Trump winning 97-99%. His statistical model has correctly predicted every election for 104 years

Via John "Professor Helmut Norpoth's "Primary Model" has been entirely predictive of presidential winners over an extended number of elections.

Here, in this short video from back in February of this year, he was on the Fox News 'curvy couch' forecasting a November presidential win for Donald a time when nearly all 17 GOP candidates were still in the race.  So for Norpoth's model, so far, so good........only 6 months more to know for sure if history will repeat.nly 6 months more to know for sure if history will repeat."


  1. Anyone interested might also want to check out Scott Adams' blog (He of Dilbert fame.) He has been saying much the same thing since shortly after Trump entered the race. He bases his prediction not as a supporter of Trump but his evaluation of him as what he calls a master persuader and a master of the linguistic kill shot. "Little Marco", "Low energy Jeb" etc.

    As to Hillary I think she is finished and just doesn't know it yet.

    1. Thanks.