Verbatim Post
I am disappointed by Ron Paul’s third place showing. He can still do well in NH and SC, but I was hoping for a first place finish. Had the caucus been 1-2 weeks ago, Paul might have won.
Here is my suspicion of what happened. Paul’s voters likely turned out as anticipated. The problem for Paul was that I doubt very many of the late deciders went for him. The people who peeled off from Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich, etc. likely largely went to Santorum or Romney. I think the newsletter flap probably did some damage at the margins. While his core largely stayed with him, and I think charges of racism are somewhat losing their power, I suspect it made it more difficult for marginal people who were considering Paul to go that way, especially in a public caucus.
There is a constituency out there for Paul’s message, but the GOP is not a Paul party however much we might wish it was. The GOP is a militaristic, interventionist party that has non-interventionist dissidents within it. It is not a non-interventionist party. Therefore our job number one is to make the case for non-intervention and change hearts and minds.
My thoughts on Romney vs. Santorum in a separate post.
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