On the election map, the State of Israel is not just blue and white; it is solidly red.
The Presidential election results are in.
Well, at least the votes from Americans in Israel. Not one to keep
readers in suspense, I’ll reveal the most important numbers up front:
Gov. Mitt Romney received 85%–85%!–of the vote; President Obama
managed only 14.3%. This, according to exit polling just released by
iVoteIsrael, the non-partisan group promoting and facilitating voting by
U.S. citizens currently in Israel. Their statistics reveal some
fascinating results. More importantly, these results have implications
for the outcome of next week’s election. (Again, not to keep you in
suspense: those implications favor the Republicans.)
First, that 85% should be seen in a broader
perspective. Israel has become a “red state” through such a solidly
Republican vote. In fact, if Israel were in the United States, it would
be the “reddest” state in the entire country. Redder, even, than Utah,
or Wyoming or Oklahoma. Significantly redder. That should be a
startling development for the Democrats, who once owned the pro-Israel
vote.
Second, that 14% for Obama is 40% lower than
the vote he received from Israel in 2008. That should worry his
campaign. Even if his support in the Jewish community in America has
eroded by only half that much, he may have trouble clearing the 60%
mark. An interesting historical note: for almost a century, every
Republican candidate who received 30% or more of the Jewish vote was
victorious–and it looks like Romney will win well over 30%.
Third, the total vote from Israel–80,000 ballots–is huge. That’s about 25% of all ballots cast from all
expat communities combined, which together have 20 times as many
Americans as Israel has. It also represents 50% of eligible voters in
Israel, a participation rate fully ten times that of Americans in the
rest of the world. That’s an incredible rate considering the cumbersome
process of registration and absentee ballot application and mailing
faced by each individual Israel-based voter. It’s also more than double
the number of ballots ever cast before from Israel.
That suggests that the Israel-based voters–who
overwhelmingly voted Romney–were unusually highly motivated to vote.
Compare that to the 5% participation rate in the rest of the
world–voters who lean towards Obama–and quite a contrast emerges between
the relative levels of motivation to vote between supporters of each
candidate. This appears to be an extreme example something U.S. polls
now show: higher motivation to vote corresponds to higher likelihood of
voting for Romney. And motivation correlates with turnout. That is a
doubly good sign for Republicans.
More @ The Times of Israel
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