Sunday, January 26, 2014

16 - 20 inches of snow for the NC beach!?

Via millerized


https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t1/1656296_638827399497855_1855133565_n.jpg

As my friend said, I'll believe it when I see it. :) Would be fun though.

You may ask  .."how often does Eastern North Carolina see a foot of snow? ..."   And statistically it's happens very rarely. But statistically hurricane  Sandy never makes a sharp left hand turn  into the New Jersey Coast.  In fact that had never happened before.  Until it did.   Statistically Katrina never happens in New  Orleans.  Statistically Moore  OK should  NOT  see 2 EF5 tornadoes  in  the same  season. But it did.  Statistically Washington, DC and Baltimore should not  see  two back to back blizzards five days apart in the winter of 2009-10 . But it did   My  Point here is that  if one simply simply hides behind statistics you will   always get the easy forecast correct .  It's easy to predict sunny and 75 in the month of MAY  and it's really hard to get that wrong.

But  if you base your forecast or perspective on  statistics and probabilities you will also always ...and I mean always  screw up the serious weather forecast forecast whether it's a blizzard or an ice storm ... a heat wave or a major hurricane making landfall .

More @ WX Risk

5 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Now the government is playing catch up and calling for 4 to 8 inches for Eastern North Carolina including the beach/sound areas.

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  2. I hope it snows and we can build a snowman!

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    Replies
    1. It's 3 to 6 now, but we're going to get more than Tarboro! :)

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