VERBATIM
Read and weep.
With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money"
-- ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here..........
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
- Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
- GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
- Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
- Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
- Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
- US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
- US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
- Total US Debt Outstanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
- US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
- Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
- Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
- S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
- VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
- 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
- USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
- EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
- Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
- NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares
No person in my circle has ever agreed with me when I say, "Yes, 16 trillion dollars is an unpayable disaster, just as W's 10 trillion dollars of debt was. Mathematically there is no significant difference." This is how I know that I am still hopelessly insane. Heh.
ReplyDeleteThis is how I know that I am still hopelessly insane. Heh.
DeleteJust a few of us.:)
Moved mine out stocks/bonds today. The Aftershock Investor book is a good source of information.Haven't finished it yet, but feel certain the last bubble will pop very soon.
ReplyDeleteD. Stroud
ENC
Wow, you stayed in this long? Well, more power to you and my guess is that you got at the virtual top. You can never buy at the bottom and sell at the top, so you just try to accomplish the two somewhere in the middling areas, but looks like you proved that adage wrong.
DeleteI hemmed and hawed for about 2 yrs now. It's one of those, You know the water is rising but you haven't taken the time to buy your lifejacket yet type of thing.
ReplyDeleteThe old way of investing is over. The Real Estate bubble popped, the dot.com bubble popped, and private debt bubble popped, and now it's time for the economy bubble to pop. Dump your stocks and bonds unless you have time to aggressively manage your portfolio every day. I'd rather get out now than the day after.
Aftershock Investers predicted the bubble pops in 2008. I'd say they are right on the $, pardon the pun.
BUY GOLD and Precious Metals, Invest in Agriculture, Ammo companies, and beer, wine and spirits. A few solid companies are still out there to buy some stock or bonds in.
I just moved all my retirement fund, which was heavy on stocks and bonds, to a money market fund until I can find out what else I can do. Our choices are limited with Wells Fargo compared to Fidelity.
READ THE BOOK!! or at least review it on Amazon.
D.Stroud
ENC
Thanks. I would worry about the money market funds also, Deborah.
DeleteI am worried. Just trying to figure out a way to minimize the penalty I'll take by cashing out all together. I hear you can roll it into ROTH IRA now, even while still working for the company. So that's my next plan by next week. These Wells Fargo have us confined to funds to choose from that are heavily invested in stocks and mutual funds. Used to, we had a wide variety of investment picks under Fidelity.
ReplyDeleteUsed to, we had a wide variety of investment picks under Fidelity.
DeleteGuess that changed when it was bought out.