Friday, March 22, 2013

Republican Stampede to Amnesty? Nothing Could Be Dumber

Mike Scruggs

     Recent academic research from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) confirms previous studies over more than two decades that Republicans cannot win more Hispanic votes by supporting amnesty and other liberal immigration legislation. Moreover, voting for liberal immigration policies hurts them significantly with non-Hispanic conservatives. This CIS research paper, Pro-Immigration Congressional Republicans Do Not Perform Better Among Latino Voters, by Dr. George Hawley of the University of Houston, was also published in the academic journal, Social Science Quarterly.

     An August 2001 CIS report by Karen Kaufmann and James G. Gimpel reached similar conclusions. This report, entitled Impossible Dream or Distant Reality? Republican Efforts to Attract Latino Voters, should have been sobering news for the Bush administration, which formulated its immigration policies based on anecdotal myths rather than statistical reality. The Bush policy of negligible internal and workplace enforcement earned no Hispanic respect, resulted in a doubling of illegal immigration, hurt American workers and taxpayers, and accelerated the growth of a strongly Democrat voting bloc that threatens eventual Democrat dominance in national elections. 

     Hispanics have a strong tradition of Democrat Party loyalty and support because they favor big government and liberal social-welfare and healthcare spending. According to a 2011 Pew Research poll, 75 percent of Hispanics favor big government with more services versus only 41 percent for the general U.S. population. Support for big government runs to 81 percent among immigrant Hispanics. They are also unresponsive to Republican calls for lower taxes. Pew research indicated that 69 percent of Hispanics favored Obamacare, and 71 percent voted for Obama.

     According to Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute and many other researchers, the Hispanic reputation for social conservatism is at least two generations out of date. Social conservatism has become a minority position among Hispanic voters. Recent Hispanic statistics on out-of-wedlock births and abortions are about twice as high as non-Hispanic whites. 

    There are conservative components of the Hispanic vote: Republicans tend to lead Democrats among Cubans by about 6 percent. Cubans are important in Florida but are only about 5 percent of the nation’s voters. G. W. Bush got 56 percent of Hispanic Protestants (32 percent of Hispanic voters) in 2004 but only 33 percent of Hispanic Catholics. Many Hispanic conservatives, however, have strong objections to amnesty and other liberal immigration policies.

     In October, Pew Research also found that while 34 percent of Latino (Hispanic) registered voters say immigration is extremely important to them, immigration ranks only fifth in their priority of issues. Education, jobs and the economy, and healthcare all ranked much higher with over 50 percent seeing them as extremely important.  Even the Federal budget deficit was more important at 36 percent. Only taxes, a Republican issue, ranked lower at 33 percent.

     The new CIS report supports three highly probable results of Republican support for amnesty and other liberal immigration programs. (1) Republicans would NOT see a net gain in Hispanic votes. (2) Amnesty, however, would result in millions of new voters leaning three to one or better toward the Democrat Party. (3) It would significantly diminish conservative support for Republicans. This drop would probably come in the form of lower conservative voter turnout.

     My own analysis of Hawley’s data, indicates an approximate drop of 10 percent in conservative support for Republicans who vote for amnesty or other liberal immigration legislation. This translates into a 4.0 percent drop in the total vote for Republicans, but it could easily be much higher if voters paid more attention to candidate positions and used a little discernment in distinguishing truth from double-talk.  Should Republicans stampede to amnesty? Nothing could be dumber.

     Amnesty by whatever name or subterfuge always results in more illegal immigration.  Because of the 1965 “Reform” Act’s Chain Migration effect, it also results in excessive legal immigration. The excess supply of labor also displaces Americans and legal immigrants from jobs and depresses the wages of American workers. The greatest negative impact is suffered by our poorest people. Yet there is little talk in the media of compassion for them. They are the forgotten Americans. Pro-amnesty and cheap-labor advocate propaganda has been successful in encouraging more compassion for those who are using identity theft and document fraud to gain their way. Over eight million illegal immigrants hold jobs, while more than 20 million Americans who want full time work cannot find it. Does anybody really care about them?  Moreover, the fiscal deficits and tax burdens resulting from illegal immigration and excessive legal immigration far outweigh any net benefit of our present uncontrolled immigration. 

     The bottom line politically on amnesty and its equivalents is that it would in just a few years completely and permanently tip the balance of power to an increasingly radical Democrat Party. That will mean that almost every issue will be dominated by a more powerful, big government, socialist, and anti-Christian Left. Unfortunately, the Left is being aided by quite a few unthinking or money-corrupted Republicans.

     Where then will be right-to-life, family values, the institution of marriage, and religious freedom? Who will be the next generation of U.S. Supreme Court justices and other federal and state judges? Will the Second Amendment be able to withstand an increasingly unsympathetic new electorate and future judicial appointments?  The Schumer-Rubio-McCain-Graham (Gang-of-8) amnesty is almost identical to the Obama amnesty plan. If it passes, we will soon live in a very different America that might seem a nightmare to those who hold conservative political, economic, social, and religious values.

     The push for amnesty is backed by powerful financial and political forces. Yet most Americans are not well informed on immigration issues and have no idea what irreparable and catastrophic political, economic, social, and cultural consequences would follow a huge amnesty. Crucial votes are only months away. We had better educate ourselves on immigration issues and get ready to defend our freedoms, or they will soon be suppressed history.


  1. I voted and worked for Republican candidates for fifty years. Stick a fork in them-they're done.

  2. For every hispanic vote gained they will lose ten white male votes. The rinos will never get it.