Mike Scruggs
Recent academic research from the Center
for Immigration Studies (CIS) confirms previous studies over more than
two decades that Republicans cannot win more Hispanic votes by supporting amnesty and other
liberal immigration legislation. Moreover, voting for liberal immigration
policies hurts them significantly with non-Hispanic conservatives. This
CIS research paper, Pro-Immigration Congressional Republicans Do Not Perform Better Among
Latino Voters, by Dr. George Hawley of the University of Houston,
was also published in the academic journal, Social Science Quarterly.
An August 2001 CIS report by Karen
Kaufmann and James G. Gimpel reached similar conclusions. This report,
entitled Impossible Dream or Distant Reality? Republican Efforts to Attract
Latino Voters, should have been sobering news for the Bush administration,
which formulated its immigration policies based on anecdotal myths rather
than statistical reality. The Bush policy of negligible internal and
workplace enforcement earned no Hispanic respect, resulted in a doubling
of illegal immigration, hurt American workers and taxpayers, and accelerated
the growth of a strongly Democrat voting bloc that threatens eventual
Democrat dominance in national elections.
Hispanics
have a strong tradition of Democrat Party loyalty and support because
they favor big government and liberal social-welfare and healthcare
spending. According to a 2011 Pew Research poll, 75 percent of Hispanics
favor big government with more services versus only 41 percent for the
general U.S. population. Support for big government runs to 81 percent
among immigrant Hispanics. They are also unresponsive to Republican
calls for lower taxes. Pew research indicated that 69 percent of Hispanics
favored Obamacare, and 71 percent voted for Obama.
According
to Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute and many other researchers,
the Hispanic reputation for social conservatism is at least two generations
out of date. Social conservatism has become a minority position among
Hispanic voters. Recent Hispanic statistics on out-of-wedlock births
and abortions are about twice as high as non-Hispanic whites.
There are conservative
components of the Hispanic vote: Republicans tend to lead Democrats
among Cubans by about 6 percent. Cubans are important in Florida but
are only about 5 percent of the nation’s voters. G. W. Bush got 56
percent of Hispanic Protestants (32 percent of Hispanic voters) in 2004
but only 33 percent of Hispanic Catholics. Many Hispanic conservatives,
however, have strong objections to amnesty and other liberal immigration
policies.
In October,
Pew Research also found that while 34 percent of Latino (Hispanic) registered
voters say immigration is extremely important to them, immigration ranks
only fifth in their priority of issues. Education, jobs and the economy,
and healthcare all ranked much higher with over 50 percent seeing them
as extremely important. Even the Federal budget deficit was more
important at 36 percent. Only taxes, a Republican issue, ranked lower
at 33 percent.
The new
CIS report supports three highly probable results of Republican support
for amnesty and other liberal immigration programs. (1) Republicans
would NOT see a net gain in Hispanic votes. (2) Amnesty, however, would
result in millions of new voters leaning three to one or better toward
the Democrat Party. (3) It would significantly diminish conservative
support for Republicans. This drop would probably come in the form of
lower conservative voter turnout.
My own analysis of Hawley’s data, indicates
an approximate drop of 10 percent in conservative support for Republicans
who vote for amnesty or other liberal immigration legislation. This
translates into a 4.0 percent drop in the total vote for Republicans,
but it could easily be much higher if voters paid more attention to
candidate positions and used a little discernment in distinguishing
truth from double-talk. Should Republicans stampede to amnesty?
Nothing could be dumber.
Amnesty by whatever name
or subterfuge always results in more illegal immigration. Because
of the 1965 “Reform” Act’s Chain Migration effect, it also results
in excessive legal immigration. The excess supply of labor also displaces
Americans and legal immigrants from jobs and depresses the wages of
American workers. The greatest negative impact is suffered by our poorest
people. Yet there is little talk in the media of compassion for them.
They are the forgotten Americans. Pro-amnesty and cheap-labor advocate
propaganda has been successful in encouraging more compassion for those
who are using identity theft and document fraud to gain their way. Over
eight million illegal immigrants hold jobs, while more than 20 million
Americans who want full time work cannot find it. Does anybody really
care about them? Moreover, the fiscal deficits and tax burdens
resulting from illegal immigration and excessive legal immigration far
outweigh any net benefit of our present uncontrolled immigration.
The bottom line politically
on amnesty and its equivalents is that it would in just a few years
completely and permanently tip the balance of power to an increasingly
radical Democrat Party. That will mean that almost every issue will
be dominated by a more powerful, big government, socialist, and anti-Christian
Left. Unfortunately, the Left is being aided by quite a few unthinking
or money-corrupted Republicans.
Where then will be right-to-life,
family values, the institution of marriage, and religious freedom? Who
will be the next generation of U.S. Supreme Court justices and other
federal and state judges? Will the Second Amendment be able to withstand
an increasingly unsympathetic new electorate and future judicial appointments?
The Schumer-Rubio-McCain-Graham (Gang-of-8) amnesty is almost identical
to the Obama amnesty plan. If it passes, we will soon live in a very
different America that might seem a nightmare to those who hold conservative
political, economic, social, and religious values.
The push for amnesty is backed
by powerful financial and political forces. Yet most Americans are not
well informed on immigration issues and have no idea what irreparable
and catastrophic political, economic, social, and cultural consequences
would follow a huge amnesty. Crucial votes are only months away. We
had better educate ourselves on immigration issues and get ready to
defend our freedoms, or they will soon be suppressed history.
I voted and worked for Republican candidates for fifty years. Stick a fork in them-they're done.
ReplyDeleteFor every hispanic vote gained they will lose ten white male votes. The rinos will never get it.
ReplyDeleteDense, dense, dense.
Delete